TitleNavigating Global Trade Uncertainty: Strengthening India’s Export Competitiveness in the Roadmap to Viksit Bharat 2047
Author(s)Dr B Rohini
FileNGP-_-April-2026.pdf
Abstract

Global trade uncertainties have completely changed international trade patterns and caused major problems for export-based countries. Protectionism, geopolitical disputes, and disruptions to supply chains have increased global market volatility in the past few years and, as a result, impacted developing countries, including India. This paper looks at how global trade uncertainty affects India's competitiveness in exports through the lens of the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision. It uses secondary data for the years 2010-2024 and conducts a multiple regression analysis to assess how global trade uncertainty, trade barriers, and disruptions in supply chains affect export performance. The results from the analysis indicate that both global trade uncertainty and trade barriers have a statistically significant negative effect on export competitiveness. Disruption to supply chains also increases transaction costs and impacts timely access to markets, resulting in even higher levels of export instability. On the other hand, both trade diversification and supply chain resiliency reduce these negative effects and improve both stability of exports and long-term competitiveness. This analysis points to the need for improved logistics infrastructure, expansion of new markets for export, and greater integration into global value chains. This paper adds to the growing body of literature on trade uncertainty by incorporating empirical data from an emerging market and provides insight into how policymakers may develop resilient trade strategies in line with India's
vision.